The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

A black swan is an extremely unlikely occurrence that has three main characteristics: it is unexpected, it has a significant effect, and we create an explanation for it after the fact that makes it seem less random and more predictable than it really was.

9/11 and Google's incredible success were both black swan events. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, almost everything in our world—from the emergence of religions to the occurrences in our own lives—is driven by black swans.

Why do we wait till after a black swan occurs to recognize the phenomenon? Taleb claims that a portion of the explanation is due to the fact that people are predisposed to study details when they should be concentrating on broad concepts.

We often overlook the things we don't know because we are too focused on the things we already know. Because of this, we are unable to accurately assess prospects, are too susceptible to the want to simplify, explain, and classify, and are not willing to give enough credit to those who can see the "impossible."

Taleb has spent years researching the phenomenon of deluding oneself into believing one knows more than one really does. While major events continue to astound us and alter our world, we limit our thoughts to the unimportant and trivial. Now, Taleb reveals what we know about what we don't know in this ground-breaking book. He provides surprisingly easy ways to cope with and take advantage of black swans.

Stunning, sophisticated, and quite versatile in its uses The Black Swan will alter your perspective on reality. With his humor, irreverence, and unique anecdotes to share, Taleb is a very engaging writer. He is a polymath who excels in a variety of fields, including probability theory, business, and cognitive science.

A classic novel in its own right, The Black Swan is a black swan.

In addition to an index, the book includes a 4-page glossary, 19 pages of notes, and a 28-page bibliography.