The release date for the English version of 'The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't' by
Nate Silver is Jan 2012. If you enjoy this novel, it is available for buy as a paperback from Barnes & Noble or Indigo, as an ebook on the Amazon Kindle store, or as an audiobook on Audible.
Nate Silver used a novel method for forecasting baseball results and almost accurately called the 2008 election. He cemented his position as the country's preeminent political analyst with his almost flawless 2012 election prediction. Silver is FiveThirtyEight.com's creator and main editor.
Silver explores the field of prediction, looking at how we may separate a genuine signal from a universe of noise data, drawing on his own revolutionary work. Most people don't comprehend probability and uncertainty well, which leads to most forecasts failing and often causing significant harm to society. More confident forecasts are mistaken for more accurate ones by both professionals and laypeople. However, failure is often caused by overconfidence. Our ability to make predictions may also increase if we get a better understanding of uncertainty. This is the "prediction paradox": We may be more effective at preparing for the future if we are more modest about our capacity for prediction.
Silver meets the most effective forecasters in a variety of fields, such as baseball, hurricanes, the stock market, poker, Capitol Hill, and the NBA, all in line with his personal goal of deriving truth from data. He analyses and clarifies the shared beliefs and methods of these forecasters. What is the secret of their success? Are they fortunate or good? What trends have they broken? And do their predictions really come true? He uncovers unexpected juxtapositions and investigates surprising similarities. Furthermore, there are situations where a prediction's relative accuracy counts more than its exact accuracy. In other situations, prediction remains an extremely crude and risky science.
According to Silver, the most successful forecasters are often modest and industrious individuals who possess a strong grasp of probability. They are able to discern between the expected and the unanticipated, and their attention to a myriad of minute details brings them one step closer to the truth. They can separate the information from the noise because they understand probability.